The following is an article written by Richard Walker which explains the likely impact of the ULEZ expansion on life expectancy.
REVEALED!
ULEZ EXPANSION COULD INCREASE LIFE EXPECTANCY BY 2.4 DAYS – MAYBE!
Yes, instead of 81 years, or 29,565 days, it could rise to 29,567 days, an increase of 0.008% !!!!
Mayor Khan has been reluctant to put numbers to the health benefits of expanding ULEZ to outer London, but a report by the Committee on the Medical Effects of Air Pollutants, COMEAP NO2 2018 (Google it) reveals on page 69 that a 1 μg/m3 reduction in NO2 emissions should increase life expectancy by 8 days.
The official Jacobs Integrated Impact Assessment estimates (p47) that ULEZ expansion will reduce NO2 pollutant levels by just 0.3 μg/m3 in outer London. 0.3 x 8 = 2.4, so that gives a 2.4 day lifetime increase thanks to ULEZ, or + 0.008%.
Thank you, Mr Khan, but in no way can that pathetic benefit justify the pain your scheme will inflict on us.
Khan’s repetitive public statements about NO2 hazards are based on a health burden report which in turn is based on the COMEAP report published in 2018 where there was no consensus on the details and which is now out of date, plus the Jacobs Impact Assessment for the ULEZ.
The following diagram shows the overall financial impact of the ULEZ expansion:
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How many people will be affected by the ULEZ expansion to outer London? This is an important question. Sadiq Khan claims only one in ten drivers (160,000 vehicles) will be affected based on counting non-compliant cars driving in London. But this is grossly misleading probably because it includes PHV/Uber cars which drive high mileages within London.
The RAC has reported the true figures. They claim nearly 700,000 cars registered in London will be affected which rises to 850,000 if vans are included. That does not even include the vehicles registered elsewhere that drive into London for commuting, shopping, etc.
These are enormous numbers and indicates the massive financial costs being imposed on potentially millions of people who will be either paying £12.50 per day or need to spend thousands of pounds on a new vehicle.
Yet again we have the Mayor of London grossly misleading people and telling porkies in his desperation to get public support for the ULEZ expansion.
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Sadiq Khan gave a speech on Monday in which he said that while some Londoners had “genuine concerns”, others had “latched on to the ULEZ to push their own agenda”. He said: “This includes a relatively small but well organised group of climate deniers and vested interests who are playing the genuine concerns of Londoners because they sense an opportunity to put a dent in the drive towards greater climate action”. See report here: https://uk.news.yahoo.com/climate-change-deniers-emboldened-ulez-215221307.html
This is of course a gross distortion of the truth. Opposing the ULEZ expansion has nothing to do with your views on climate change. The ULEZ is claimed to tackle air pollution (but it won’t help in outer London) and there is no basis for arguing it will tackle climate change. Only the misinformed will be fooled by this nonsense. The ULEZ is solely about raising tax to cover TfL and the Mayor’s financial mismanagement.
The Conservative Party seem to have finally realised that the ULEZ expansion is a great platform on which to attack Sadiq Khan. They are promoting a petition which has already been signed by over 70,000 people. Please add your name! See https://action.conservatives.com/stop-drivers-tax/
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There is another demonstration against the expansion of the ULEZ on this coming Saturday at Trafalgar Square (the 18th March at midday). Please attend if you can.
There have been a number of reports of another way people have been demonstrating their opposition to the ULEZ enforcement cameras that are being installed – by damaging them. This is what happens when legitimate protests are ignored so we won’t be condemning this activity.
It is of course now very clear that the additional cameras were ordered before the public consultation was even commenced which shows how Sadiq Khan and TfL never had any intention of listening.
Apart from the two legal actions being pursued against the expansion, the Conservative Party is also organising local protest groups in each affected borough and setting up Facebook groups. For example there is one for Bromley residents named “Bromley say no to ULEZ expansion” which already has over 2,000 members. Why not join?
The good news is that a legal challenge to removal of the Kensington High Street cycle lanes by Better Streets (they should be called Worse Streets) was thrown out in the High Court. See https://tinyurl.com/25c8dncv for details.
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At the People’s Question Time in Ealing on 2/3/2023 the Mayor of London showed just what he will do to try and push through his ULEZ policies. He made a number of outrageous allegations about those who oppose expansion including that they are covid and vaccine deniers and are associated with the “far right”. See video here: https://fb.watch/j1rLkjfuto/
He got a severe barracking from the audience and quite rightly. The protesters inside and outside the hall might have been a mixed bunch of people but it is ridiculous to suggest they were extreme conspiracy theorists. It is malicious nonsense for Sadiq Khan to suggest that those who oppose the ULEZ expansion are extremists of any kind.
On a personal note, I have been campaigning against the ULEZ expansion but I certainly don’t deny the benefit of covid vaccinations – I have had 5.
To back up Sadiq Khan, the Labour Leader of Ealing Council Peter Mason said this on Twitter: “The protest outside Peoples Question Time at Ealing Town Hall tonight wasn’t an expression of freedom of speech. People from outside our borough came to our streets to spread racism, intimidation and hatred. This isn’t democracy, this is barbarism”.
Again a false demonisation of those protesting. The protesting certainly had nothing to do with racism and all that Sadiq Khan and Peter Mason have done is to stir up hatred with unfounded allegations.
What is politics coming to when such people are allowed to generate divisions based on false claims?
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There was a good turnout at the demonstration against the ULEZ extension yesterday (25/02/2023). See photo above. It got some media coverage on TV channels and in papers such as the Daily Mail.
The BBC have reported, based on data analysed by the Liberal Democrats, that more than 1.5 million people living outside London could be impacted by the new London-wide Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ). Data from the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency (DVLA) also suggests 30% of vehicles in the UK do not come within the emission limits of ULEZ. The Liberal Democrats, which analysed the data, is calling for a scrappage scheme for across the South East.
Comment: Drivers living outside the expanded ULEZ zone will be taxed when they have no say in the election of the Mayor of London or his policies. This is unjust. Central Government need to rectify this injustice. Scrappage schemes are not the solution as they only help a small minority of people.
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Both the Daily Telegraph and Daily Mail have reported that the Government may block the expansion of the ULEZ to outer London. It is suggested they could use Section 143 of the Greater London Authority Act 1999. This gives the Secretary of State the power to veto the Mayor of London’s policies which are inconsistent with national transport policies (see https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1999/29/section/143 ).
Paul Scully, Transport Minister, has argued that as the ULEZ affects many people who live outside of London itself. He said “It affects a whole load of people in Surrey, Kent and Hertfordshire who didn’t get a say on it. It is taxation without representation”.
Comment: Whether Section 143 of the Act gives the requisite power to block the Mayor is legally questionable in my view but it might be worth fighting in the Courts. However, and as I have said before, as ultimately the Government has the power to change the 1999 Act, they should threaten to do so. They could simply remove the ability to introduce or continue with charging schemes. Simply threatening to do so would put the Mayor in an impossible position because he would incur very substantial costs in building the camera network which would then not be recoverable.
The Government just needs to make some tough decisions and lay down the law on this issue instead of sitting on the fence and trying to please everyone.
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The London Councils of Bexley, Bromley, Harrow and Hillingdon and Surrey County Council have applied for a judicial review of the ULEZ expansion.
The coalition will challenge the expansion in the High Court on five grounds:
Councillor Colin Smith, Leader of Bromley Council said, “We have been sounding the alarm about Mayor Khan’s attempted tax raid on the Outer ‘London’ suburbs for many months now. The fundamental truth as to his true intention is now increasingly plain for all to see.
“In Bromley, this socially regressive tax directly threatens jobs, the viability and availability of small businesses, and causing significant damage to vital care networks, as well as creating a completely avoidable spike in the cost of living locally, at a time when some households are already struggling to make ends meet.
“To attempt to do all of this under cover of a false Health scare over air quality, when the Mayor’s own research confirms that Bromley has the second cleanest air in London, also, that extending ULEZ to the boundaries of the M25 will make no discernible difference to air quality locally, is frankly unforgivable.
“The upset, pain and anxiety this has caused locally is immense, which is why, even at this late stage, I once again call on the Mayor to withdraw this spiteful proposal.”
Comment: This looks like a serious challenge to Sadiq Khan. Let us hope it is successful.
There is also a separate legal challenge where a pre-action letter has been sent on behalf of Ed Gregory – by Tilbrook’s Solicitors after instructing Robert Griffiths KC of Six Pump Court. See https://www.crowdjustice.com/case/stop-ulez-expansion/
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There is another demonstration planned for the 25th February at 12.00 noon in Trafalgar Square. Please attend if possible.
Meanwhile the Mayor has been promoting the wonders of the existing ULEZ with this claim about a recent report: “Report shows that the ULEZ has reduced harmful pollution levels in central London by nearly half compared to what they would have been without the ULEZ”.
This report only looks at one year, a year affected by the pandemic, and does not separate out the impact of tighter restrictions on heavy vehicles under the LEZ scheme. Nor does it take into account the scrapping of older vehicles and replacement by lower emission new ones, nor the general improvement in home and commercial heating systems, nor the changes to London buses and to taxis. As usual it is using selective data to try to make a point. See https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2023-02/Inner%20London%20ULEZ%20One%20Year%20Report%20-%20final.pdf . It is irrelevant to the issue of whether expanding the ULEZ makes any sense.
There is a useful Parliamentary petition you can sign which reads: “Hold a referendum on removing the London Assembly and London Mayor. We believe too much power is in the hands of the London Assembly and London Mayor. We are particularly concerned about the impact of expanding the ULEZ on people who are struggling with a cost of living crisis to put food on the tables, keep kids clothed and fed while struggling to heat homes”. Please sign it here: https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/631763
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There have been a lot of claims by Sadiq Khan about the deaths caused by air pollution in London so as to justify his expansion of the ULEZ but his claims are unsubstantiated by the evidence available.
I have a strong personal interest in this matter because my father died from lung disease (mesothelioma – a cancer caused by exposure to asbestos), my brother died from idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (a lung disease for which there is no known cause) and I suffered from asthma when young due to allergies to pollen and other things. Anyone who has suffered from asthma or seen people die from lung disease will know how distressing it is.
It is known that air pollution can exacerbate asthma symptoms which I can confirm from my own personal experience but whether it can cause asthma is unclear. Even now I avoid walking behind London diesel buses! The onset of asthma can be triggered by many things and is a growing problem worldwide probably because of the change in lifestyles of the population and increased urbanisation. The largest source of air pollution is often in homes and offices and people spend more time in them and lead a sedentary life style as they become wealthier.
To attack air pollution in the hope that we can prevent all lung disease is misconceived. In particular to attack diesel/petrol cars in the hope of removing air pollution is a simplistic notion when there are multiple other sources of air pollution. If Sadiq Khan thinks he can cure his late-onset asthma (which he claims to have) then he is not living in the real world.
The air pollution sources in the UK in 2018 is given in the diagram above taken from a Public Health England report. Note that road transport only produces 12.4% of all PM 2.5 (particulate) emissions whereas residential and small commercial combustion produces 43.1%.
Note how over 50% of PM2.5 emissions in central London come from commercial cooking! That report also shows how emissions of particulates and NOX (nitrous oxides) have been falling rapidly across London. This is not just due to the ULEZ and Congestion Charge schemes which probably only had minor impacts but a general improvement in energy production, heating and industrial processes.
The Freedom for Drivers Foundation published this report in 2018 (revised in 2021) called “Air Quality and Vehicles: The Truth” – see Report . It provides a well-reasoned and unbiased analysis of the data unlike so many of the comments you see on this subject. The situation since it was published has no doubt improved even further.
There is simply no justification for extending the ULEZ scheme. The reduction in air pollution in Greater London would be miniscule – about 0.1% in the important PM2.5 emissions for example. Nobody is going to notice this and it won’t have any significant impact on health outcomes. See https://freedomfordrivers.blog/2022/09/07/ulez-expansion-assessment-a-complete-fraud/ for the independent analysis commissioned by TfL (Jacobs Report).
There are many things the London Mayor and the Government could do about air pollution but expanding attacks on vehicle owners is one of the least beneficial in terms of cost/benefits. Reducing wood burning is one which the Government has recently tackled for example.
Removing air pollution might have some long-term health benefits although the likely benefit is uncertain. Removing all of it might extend life by a few days but to do that we would have to remove all road, rail and air transport, remove all domestic gas boilers, close down all restaurants, ban cooking at home, cease all agriculture, cease all new building and building renovation, close down most of industry, etc. How lunatic would such a policy be!
I am all for improving air quality where it can be achieved at reasonable cost and with no negative consequences. But expanding the ULEZ scheme will increase the cost of living for many people when they are already suffering from high inflation. It is simply unjustified and Sadiq Khan’s motivation despite his blustering about the impact on health is clearly motivated by financial imperatives.
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