There was an interesting article reviewing car sales in last week’s Investors Chronicle (4-10 July under the headline Toyota: pragmatic or careless?).
Toyota was still the best-selling car brand in 2024, ahead of Volkswagen, Ford and Hyundai. Market share of petrol-powered cars in Europe was about 47% in 2024 and has not been declining rapidly despite government incentives to purchase electric vehicles.
Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) reached a record 19.6% of new car registrations in 2024, according to We Buy Any Car but these are mainly fleet sales with private owners still favouring ICE (petrol/diesel or hybrid) vehicles.
The public are not changing their views on which vehicles are best very quickly although the numbers are very different in different countries mainly because of different tax incentives in some.
Toyota have been winning market share because they have not been dogmatic about what type of vehicles they expect purchasers to buy. With a strong focus on hybrid offerings, compare that with Jaguar who have focussed on expensive electric vehicles and where sales have almost disappeared.
Betting on any one technology is surely a mistake – as Tesla and Jaguar have done. The Chinese makers such as BYD (backed by Warren Buffett) are emulating Toyota in approach.
Whichever type of vehicle best suits the buyers depends on home facilities such as off-road parking and the cost of fuel in the local market.
It may be cheaper to run a second-hand ICE vehicle than buy a new electric one.
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The Government has rejected a Parliamentary petition calling for repeal of the Climate Change Act. See https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/701600 . The Government has rejected this petition with this summary comment: “There is no ‘two-sided’ debate on anthropogenic climate change. The Government’s policy to support ambitious action on climate change reflects the overwhelming scientific consensus”. Meanwhile most of the rest of the world, including the biggest emitters of CO2 continue to ignore it while the UK incurs very substantial costs in trying to meet an impossible target.
The UK population have never had the opportunity to vote on this subject. Why not? I guess the Government does not believe in the wisdom of crowds.
Electric Car Market
The electric car market seems to be rapidly changing. The former market leader of Tesla is no longer in the lead having been overtaken by BYD as the world’s biggest EV seller. German and US manufacturers have also stepped up their game in terms of product features and quality. Where is the UK? Absolutely nowhere with even Jaguar Land Rover backing the wrong horses. To quote the Brown Car Guy “China now produces 70% of the world’s EVs, meaning there’s a buffet of options that are more affordable”.
Some of the decline in Tesla sales has been attributed to Elon Musk’s involvement in politics – even an allegation that he made a Nazi salute which I consider quite ridiculous. Like Donald Trump he seems to be making a positive contribution to US politics to my mind. Anyone who buys a new car based on the political views of someone who only owns about 13% of the company is surely misguided.
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Elon Musk has promoted a new Tesla “Cybercab” model – basically an electric car with no pedals, steering wheel or other controls which he hopes to sell for $30,000. He also unveiled a prototype for a 20-person autonomous vehicle called a Robovan. They have yet to be approved by regulators and currently rely mainly on vision systems to avoid collisions unlike some of the self-driving competitors. He also demonstrated an Optimus humanoid robot for jobs around the house.
Meanwhile Tesla is facing stronger competition for electric cars from low-cost Chinese manufacturers. One can easily envisage that the world will be a very different place as regards automobiles in a few years’ time. Electric cars are achieving longer ranges and are getting relatively cheaper so are becoming more practical for most people who only do daily short journey commutes.
My next personal vehicle may well be an electric one, and being able to give up driving altogether would also be a distinct advantage as I get older.
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There has been a good article published by the Brown Car Guy (SHAHZAD SHEIKH) on the current problems of car manufacturers under the title “Car Industry in Crisis”. It covers the trend to electric vehicles which has seen a major slow-down of late. The initial enthusiasm for electric vehicles is fading as the economics of them in terms of initial cost, repair costs and insurance are proving very unattractive to many buyers.
The Government surely needs to recognise that there will be major opposition to the outright ban on IC vehicles that is coming and they are already being made more expensive by Government regulation.
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It’s time to wrap up the year with some comments on the state of driving and transport in the UK. It’s been another year where the Government has been throwing billions of pounds at building railways despite the fact that they are old, inflexible and inefficient technology. But at least some of HS2 has been cancelled.
A singular example of how inflexible the rail network is was the closure of King’s Cross and Paddington stations this week due to engineering works. The closure of London Paddington meant no mainline trains serving Heathrow Airport. There has also been disruption of rail services due to overhead power cables being damaged by storms and of course by strikes of rail workers.
Just one example of why roads are better is that I have been spending a lot of time on trips to central London hospitals in the past year. But as the local station has no step-free access and I need to use a wheel-chair, rail travel is totally impractical. So I have been using Uber at lot. Generally it’s a very efficient service although one driver failed to pick up after an hour and another gave me a bad cold.
One problem is that they tend to drive electric cars now and to ensure a long range they turn the heating off. Not at all comfortable! I am still driving myself for most journeys though and have a wheel-chair that folds up and stores in the car boot.
Sadiq Khan has continued his attack on motorists but has seemingly relented over his decision to block non-compliant Chelsea tractors being sent to Ukraine. But it will require a change to the scrappage scheme regulations to permit this.
Local councils are some of the worst culprits for undermining the use of private cars with such measures as LTNs and impractical and unnecessary 20 mph speed limits. Central Government has indicated they will try to put a halt to this stupidity but it needs vigorous representation at the local level to make some councils see sense. You can all contribute to that!
Personally I am all in favour of discouraging larger/heavier vehicles on our roads. They are damaging the roads and hence the increase in potholes. They are simply unnecessary for most people, particularly in central London. I have owned some large cars in my lifetime (the biggest was an enormous Mark 9 Jaguar) but a mid-size or smaller vehicle is now adequate for most purposes. I have therefore downsized to a Jaguar XE in the last year – with a 2.0 litre petrol engine which gives adequate performance and is efficient.
I judged it was not yet time to switch to an electric vehicle due to excessive capital cost, high insurance cost and poor charging infrastructure. That seems to be the judgement many people are making. In November 2023, only 15.6% of all new car registrations were electric vehicles but the numbers are rising.
IC vehicles with small efficient petrol engines emit very low levels of air pollution and make economic sense so the Government should backtrack on the banning of their sales. If not there will be a big demand for second-hand IC vehicles.
It just remains to wish my readers a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. Just remember to drive safely at this dangerous time of the year with snow being forecast at the time of writing.
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China is an enormous car market, but they have not yet made much impact on sales in Europe or the USA despite producing 27 million vehicles last year. That is going to change though and a review of a new vehicle made by BYD helps to explain why.
The BYD Dolphin is a smallish EV hatchback which will retail at as little as £26,000. There are a few cheaper small cars but in terms of features and styling the Dolphin is surely going to be very competitive.
BYD have a history of making innovative batteries and you get a 265 mile range which would be fine for most city driving.
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The stock market is quiescent and it is time to ponder questions such as should I buy more BP shares and should I buy an electric or hybrid car? There is an article in the FT today on the rejection of resolutions focussed on climate change at the ExxonMobil and Chevron annual meetings. It said: “shareholders solidly rejected climate change proposals at the US oil majors’ annual meetings on Wednesday, scaling back support from last year and splitting with results at peers in Europe where resolutions related to global warming have won stronger support. Only 11 per cent of Exxon shareholders supported a petition calling for the company to set emissions reduction targets that would be consistent with the goals of the 2015 Paris climate agreement. A similar proposal at Chevron received less than 10 per cent support”. See FT article here: https://www.ft.com/content/7faccadc-beef-4b10-be53-ae7aceaeafce
Resolutions on this subject at the BP and Shell AGMs were similarly defeated even though many institutional holders like to promote their green credentials.
Individual shareholders need to make up their own minds on how to vote on whether to put companies like BP and Shell out of business by stopping their oil development activities. Both BP and Shell argue for a transition to renewable energy at a pace acceptable to their customers and which does not impose unreasonable short-term costs and I agree with them. The transition to renewable energy for many purposes may make sense but for transportation carbon fuels have a very high energy intensity and the infrastructure to support electric vehicles means a high loss in the transmission system.
I have a pressing personal decision to make on this issue. My diesel-powered Jaguar XF is almost ten years old now and I like to buy a new car when they have done more than 60,000 miles as they get more unreliable and expensive to maintain after that. I don’t do many miles now so a somewhat smaller car might make some sense. But should it be an electric vehicle, a hybrid or a petrol/diesel one?
I think a hybrid is the best bet and have booked a test drive of a Toyota Corolla. They are self-charging hybrids but can only run a short distance on battery power so I am betting that petrol will be readily available for at least the next ten years.
I am surprised that Jaguar are still selling XF models but they do now have a petrol option and a “sportbrake” version which probably shows how well liked the car is but I fear that diesel will be discouraged by regulation soon.
They do sell all-electric models now but they are expensive and are bulky SUV style cars when I prefer smaller vehicles. Note that the environmental benefits of electric cars over petrol ones are quite marginal if you take the all-in lifetime environmental impact costs into account and the latest scare is that the heavier weight of electric vehicles is causing damage to our roads – thus explaining why there are so many potholes in our roads of late. The weight of current electric batteries is becoming a major problem while the production and recycling of batteries is a negative aspect not yet confronted.
Electric cars are cheaper than they used to be but they either have limited range or are expensive (£43,000 to £58,000 for a Tesla Model 3 for example, or over £70,000 for a Jaguar I-Pace).
Readers of this article can suggest alternatives for me to look at. Use the comment box below.
I could of course hold on to my current vehicle for another few years in the hope that Sadiq Khan changes his mind on the ULEZ expansion (my Jaguar XF is not compliant) or is not elected again next May. There are several strong contenders lining up to take him on. But I do so few miles within the ULEZ area (current and future) that it does not bother me much what the Mayor decides to do. Whatever he decides he is bound to be wrong based on his past decision record.
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The conventional wisdom is that although electric cars are more expensive to buy, they are cheaper to run. The cost of electricity, particularly if you charge at home, means a lower cost per mile travelled in comparison with buying diesel or petrol. But an interesting article in the Daily Telegraph has debunked that assumption.
They say that as the unit cost of electricity will nearly double under the new energy price cap as a result it will cost more to travel in an electric car than a petrol one. They compared the cost of running a Jaguar i-PACE, and electric SUV, with the equivalent Jaguar f-PACE, a petrol driven version. To cover 400 miles the electric version would cost £99 more to travel the same distance. Likewise a Kia e-Niro would cost £88 more than a Kia Sportage.
With electric models often costing twice as much has petrol versions, you can see that there is a big financial disincentive to buy an electric vehicle (a Jaguar i-PACE is 66% more expensive than an f-PACE). The main difference is of course the battery cost and they are not coming down in price as rapidly as expected mainly due to the demand for lithium.
Comment: As the overall carbon cost of an electric vehicle during its lifetime, including construction and scrapping costs, is little lower than that of a diesel/petrol vehicle one has to be a committed green fanatic to ignore the economics. The better solution if you want to minimise emissions, particularly in cities, is probably to buy a self-charging hybrid such as the Toyota Yaris Hybrid – starting price £20,500 (Note: the Prius is no longer made but Toyota now have several hybrid models).
People buying new cars when we near 2030, after which sales of pure diesel/petrol cars will be banned, will need to consider the costs carefully and whether to anticipate the ban.
Cloning Rising
With the introduction of the ULEZ across much of London, the practice of cloning car number plates to save money has grown rapidly. According to an analysis by Fleetpoint, based on TfL data comparing April 2021 with April 2022, there was an alarming rise of 857% in cloning.
Cloning a vehicle number plate is relatively easy and if you drive a popular car model you may find it wise to mark your vehicle near the number plates so that it can be differentiated from any clone. Otherwise you may find it difficult to prove it was not you when a PCN is issued.
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Toyota have warned the Government that it may cease making cars in the UK if a ban on sales of hybrid vehicles is introduced. That is currently scheduled for 2035 but even after 2030 there may be very tight restrictions on what qualifies for an exemption. Self-charging cars such as the Corolla might not qualify.
Toyota have a big car manufacturing plant employing 3,000 people in Burnaston, Derbyshire and in Deeside, North Wales. There is also the problem that Toyota might be impacted by Government mandates on the proportion of vehicles sold that are purely electric when Toyota has promoted hybrid vehicles for some years starting with the Prius.
Honda has also closed their plant in Swindon and these closures will reduce UK car production very significantly. Meanwhile it looks like Aston Martin will need another bailout to keep it afloat.
The Corolla is a reasonably priced self-charging hybrid with either a 1.8 or 2.0 litre petrol engine. It is a reasonable compromise between emission reduction and flexibility. It is a great pity that the UK Government is not encouraging the retention of hybrid vehicle sales past 2030 or 2035 which are not far away now. Purely electric vehicles are far from ideal for those in remote parts of the country where charging points are limited, or for those who do not have off-road parking.
A self-charging hybrid can go some distance on electric power alone so can substantially reduce emissions on short trips which are common in city driving conditions.
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There was a very good article by David Frost on the right to drive freely published by the Daily Telegraph today (29/7/2022). He talks about a world where private cars are banned. He suggests Governments haven’t quite done that but there are people who want to ban cars in some large cities and suggests one day some feeble Red-Green mayor somewhere in Europe will surely give in to it. Meanwhile our leaders are doing everything short of it.
To quote from the article: “But this is not just about technology. It is about human flourishing. The bicycle first allowed people to move from where they lived. The car hugely expanded it. The van and delivery lorry got goods all around the country and the car gave people access to this huge choice. People could go out whatever the weather. They could buy enough food for a week and free up time for things they preferred doing. The disabled, the old, or just those seeking a day out somewhere different, all could get to where they needed to go”; and “There is obviously no substitute for the car outside urban areas. But, even in big cities, public transport will never do everything we need. It runs where the planners want it and when the transport unions allow it. Not everyone wants to travel to the city centre or along a tube line. Only the private car, under autonomous control, can take you where you want to go. Too many of our modern rulers would rather you didn’t.”
He concludes with the comment “Cars are about freedom – going where you want and no one saying you can’t”. That well summarises what the Freedom for Drivers Foundation stands for.
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