The BBC have reported that Crossrail (otherwise known as the “Elizabeth Line”) could be delayed until 2021. A senior source associated with the project has apparently told the BBC that testing of the trains and signalling was proving difficult and none of the new stations on the line are yet complete.

This will cause major problem for Sadiq Khan because the income from passengers on the line was going to help fill the yawning operating deficit of Transport for London (TfL) in 2019-2020. This was already forecast to be a negative £1.44 billion in that year. Or “net revenue expenditure” as TfL prefer to euphemistically call it, when it is a simple case of massive losses where revenue does not even cover operating costs let alone capital expenditure.

TfL expected to get £170 million from passenger fares on Crossrail in the current financial year and £350 million next year (2020-2021). That’s going to have a major negative impact on the deficit in TfL.

The delays to Crossrail are also likely to mean even more capital expenditure than on Crossrail than was forecast in the current financial year – that’s another few billion pounds probably.

Postscript: TfL have subsequently confirmed the central section of the line is likely to open within a 6 month window stretching from October 2020 to March 2021. Losses may be mitigated by running trains between Reading and Paddington from the end of this year. But Bond Street station completion is running well behind schedule.

Demonstrations Not Helping

Much of TfL’s income comes from Bus and Tube fares at present. The current demonstrations by Extinction Rebellion are severely disrupting bus operations and no doubt reducing fare income. As many as 50 bus routes run through Oxford Circus, Oxford Street and Regent Street alone. Is that why the Mayor initially supported the demonstrations but has now changed his tune? The threat to disrupt the Underground services must have been the last straw.

The additional overtime for police officers to control these demonstrations may also be running into millions of pounds which the Mayor will have to pay for.

The Mayor suggests in his latest tweet that his concern is about the safety of the public, but as usual with Sadiq Khan the truth may be otherwise – it’s about money! There is also the problem that the Mayor is up for re-election in May 2020 and by then his financial budget will be looking quite appallingly bad. With no more give-aways possible to bribe the electorate with this time around, he has a real problem!

Roger Lawson

Twitter: https://twitter.com/Drivers_London

You can “follow” this blog by clicking on the bottom right.